As a brief follow-up to my last economic post I wanted to point out a few economic indicators.
Again, I'm not saying these numbers are good or that the housing crisis isn't a serious issue. But in comparison to what they could be these numbers aren't bad either.
- The Dow closed at 11,143 on Sep. 26 (right before the crisis began). It now stands at 10,859. That's a 284 point drop which is bad but hardly a catastrophe (and with a bailout in limbo I don't think Wall Street could get more nervous than it is right now)
- Unemployment is 6.1% (keep in mind that includes a permanent unemployment rate of about 4% which includes Students, Housewives, and others who aren't seeking work)
- GDP Increased 3.3% in the 2nd quarter of '08
- The Consumer Price Index declined .1% in August (a good thing, increase means growing Inflation). That's the first decline in 2 years.
- Retail Sales fell by .3% in August 2008
Again, the issue isn't "are the numbers good?", they aren't. But are they terrible? Are they catastrophic? Are they the beginning of another great depression?
No, they aren't.
This isn't a good situation. No one's saying it is. We're almost certainly headed for a recession, I don't think anyone's denying that. There will be job losses, there will be credit crunches and none of it's going to be pleasant.
But the sky is not falling and I think everyone needs to keep that in mind.