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I really don’t have time for this Bull You-Know-What

clock December 24, 2011 21:44 by author Tom

It’s Christmas Eve.  I don’t have time to be posting to this blog.  But I opened Techmeme up on my phone and saw this headline from The Next Web: “Go Daddy lost 21,054 domains yesterday in wake of SOPA PR disaster

Here’s a quote…

It looks like these PR moves to save face, and business, are completely futile. According to TheDomains, 21,054 domains were transferred away from Go Daddy on Friday alone. At $6.99 a pop, that would make for a loss of $147,167, not taking future renewals into account. The day before wasn’t a good one for the company either, with 15,000 people taking their domains elsewhere. That means that even though Go Daddy changed its stance, people have had enough.

The stats from DailyChanges show that the transfers away from Go Daddy have been increasing all week. 

Sounds really bad doesn’t it?  So I went to the DailyChanges website and I noticed a couple of things TheNextWeb neglected to mention…

image

So almost as many people transferred in as transferred out and there were more new domains created than old domains deleted. 

Don’t get the wrong idea.  I’m not suggesting people joined GoDaddy because of their SOPA support.  I’m simply saying the 21,000 number is probably close to an average amount of in/out transactions for GoDaddy.   In fact, I made a quick visit to the WayBackMachine and took a look at September 9th (the closest I could get to “this time last year”).  I found 15,001 for transfers out and 15,876 for transfers in.  A relatively similar ratio (there are more transfers out in the current numbers but that’s not surprising since the SOPA protest could easily have caused a couple thousand transfers out).

May 14th, 2011 is the next record in the database and it has 10,704 (In) and –15,455 (out).

So don’t be misled.  The SOPA protest almost certainly had some impact but it isn’t as dramatic as the headline would lead you to believe.  I’m not going to outright accuse TheNextWeb of skewing the story but I did note their source (TheDomains) noted the “Transfer In” numbers while TheNextWeb did not. 

Addendum: Just to further make the point here is a list of the Transfer In/Transfer Out numbers for the week leading up to the Reddit post that encouraged a boycott.  And yes, that is 46,000 out transfers that happened days before the SOPA list was published.

(The numbers are from DailyChanges but I believe you need a subscription to access them)

 

12/16  23,762 / 21,783

12/17  21,762 / 46,958

12/18  18,901 / 14,998

12/19  16,825 / 8,836

12/20  17,285 / 13,143

12/21  16,232 / 14,493

12/22  18,095 / 15,860 

 



Harsher Tactics

clock December 22, 2011 22:08 by author Tom

Three years ago, almost to the day, I posted this in response to claims the RIAA was dying…

But it’s important to remember something here: The RIAA is not the record companies.  If the RIAA dies it won’t end the record companies’ efforts to stop file trading.  It will only give birth to another organization tasked with the same goals.  Which makes the RIAA’s desperation a good thing because it makes them more willing to deal (which a new organization probably won’t be).  

Which brings me back to my point.  File Trading Advocates can attack the RIAA all they want but it isn’t going to accomplish anything.  What they need to do is praise every effort that moves away from harsh tactics and work with the RIAA to develop realistic solutions.  The RIAA’s current desperation means there’s no time like the present to start a dialogue.

That’s why I’ve been relatively quiet on the “Stop Online Piracy Act”.  I don’t like SOPA, I don’t think it will be good for the Internet and I hope it fails.  But it was inevitable.  These copyright holders have been forced into harsher solutions because the tech industry refuses to engage them and makes no effort to find realistic solutions.  Even now the tech industry continues to be on the attack

The company boycotts  have sparked a threadon Hacker News, where user Solipsist posted a link to the list with the comment, “While I understand your sentiments towards SOPA, are you really going to distance yourself from all of these companies?”

To which YCombinator founder and investor Paul Graham replied,

“Actually that’s exactly what I thought when I saw the list yesterday. Several of those companies send people to Demo Day, and when I saw the list I thought: we should stop inviting them. So yes, we’ll remove anyone from those companies from the Demo Day invite list.”

Disinviting offending companies to YCombinator Demo Day? That takes, um, guts. Graham told me in a followup email that he was indeed serious and had just given the list of SOPA supporters to the people in charge of the Demo Day invites, ”I don’t know exactly which companies had people on the list.  But I know which will now: none of them.”

I’ll admit this hits me where it hurts.  I admire Paul Graham so to see him take such a counter productive position is honestly painful to me (not to mention embarrassing because I’ve used him as an example of a reasonable person in the tech industry)

I mean, lets be realistic about what he’s saying here.  He’s saying he understands there are companies who support SOPA and he’s going to do everything in his power to force them into doing what he wants regardless of how they feel. 

Ask yourself this: How do you feel when someone tries to force you to do something? 

My guess is it doesn’t endear them to you.  It certainly doesn’t make you feel like taking their side. So you can try to force these companies to withdraw their public support but they’ll still privately support it.  In fact I’d argue they’ll become more dedicated to the cause because people who are forced to do something tend to double down on their beliefs. 

Given that what do you think comes next?

I predict SOPA will, in its essence, be implemented three years from now.  Even if the current bill fails.  Because these companies won’t give up.  They may not want a public fight so they’ll just pay legislators to slip SOPA into other bills piece by piece.  In fact, I’d wager they’ll slip something worse in once all is said and done. 

If Paul Graham wanted to be productive he should do just the opposite of what he’s doing.  He should personally invite the CEOs of these companies and their representatives to the next Demo Day.  He should prominently post signs by each startup explaining why SOPA would hurt the innovation they represent.  He should deliver a speech making an impassioned argument against SOPA.  Basically he should see them as good people who are wrong and not evil people who he should try to hurt. 



Open WebOS

clock December 9, 2011 17:09 by author Tom

So HP has decided to Open Source the Palm WebOS

HP today announced it will contribute the webOS software to the open source community.

HP plans to continue to be active in the development and support of webOS. By combining the innovative webOS platform with the development power of the open source community, there is the opportunity to significantly improve applications and web services for the next generation of devices.

I wish I had more to say on this but in truth this announcement doesn’t tell us anything

Here’s the problem.  A lot of people think Open Source is a scenario where you build something, give it to the world, and the world embraces it from there.  But It doesn’t really work that way.

Every successful open source project has one thing in common: a group of people who are dedicated to it.  Who treat it more like a religion than a hobby and who work very, very hard to make it successful.  Sometimes it’s an entire company (Think Android with Google), sometimes it’s a foundation (Mozilla) and sometimes it’s just a small group of people (Linux in the early days).  But whatever the case open source projects need that push.

In many ways an Open Source Project boils down to the willpower of its backers.  It is a physical manifestation of their dedication to accomplish the task it was built for. 

So HP saying they’ll “engage the open source community to help define the charter of the open source project” tells us nothing.   Are they going to keep a full time staff on it?  Are they going to put money into a foundation for it?  Do they have dedicated staff members who are still so in love with the platform they’ll work on it in their spare time? 

Those are the questions that will define what happens next. 

Which brings me to the other important thing behind every open source project: Purpose.  For an open source project to succeed it has to fill a void.  Linux provided a viable open OS, Mozilla provided an alternative to IE and Android provided an alternative to iOS.  For WebOS to succeed it has to find a void to fill and right now they don’t have one.  There’s already a popular open mobile OS and a popular open desktop OS. 

If I were a WebOS supporter I’d focus on the platform itself.  The one thing WebOS did better than anyone was to create a platform for web applications that could function like native apps.  They should ditch the underlying plumbing and treat WebOS as a Linux shell (it basically is a very developed Linux shell).  Use WebOS to create what ChromeOS should have been: a Web based OS without native applications that is fully functional. 

That’s a void that needs to be filled (and because you could adapt existing web applications to it you’d have a good chance of getting support. 



About Me

Hi, I’m Tom and I run the IT department for a non-profit agency which provides treatment to special-needs children. Though I will (like any blogger) comment on technology in general my main goal is to detail how I’m trying to use technology to help treat the children we serve and its my hope that blogging will allow me to connect with people who can help in that goal.

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