Microsoft's David Treadwell put up a preview of the new Windows Live Platform that will be introduced at the Mix '08 conference.  There's too much to quote but you can read the post here.  I'm planning to withhold judgement until I see the actual release but I did want to put a quick post up to describe my overall feeling about Microsoft's these days.

Back in 1997 the browser war was in full swing.  Version 3.0 of each browser had just come out the year before and both Microsoft and Netscape were readying massive upgrades in their 4.0 products.  At the time people were so fixated on the grudge match between the two companies that I think something got lost in the shuffle. 

Microsoft was actually the good guy. 

One of the long forgotten ironies of the 90s browser war was that Internet Explorer was by far the more standards compliant browser.  Netscape was throwing in proprietary technology everywhere while Microsoft was submitting everything to standards bodies.  I don't mean this as a shot at Netscape or even praise for Microsoft, they were both acting according to their position in the market.  But it is interesting that Microsoft got little credit for doing all the right things.

Now we have another grudge match between Microsoft and Google and while its not exactly the same (Google's a lot more open than Netscape was) I can't help but feel Microsoft is the more open of the two. 

Sure they want to control the plumbing but who doesn't?  Beyond that, someone's going to have to do it.  Why shouldn't Microsoft have my contact information if they're willing to give it back to me anytime I ask?  Why shouldn't I also give them my photos if they're willing to standardize all their API's around AtomPub?

There are people who simply won't accept that Microsoft can do any good.  But anyone else has to admit that Microsoft is moving in the right direction and deserves a little credit for it.  Maybe even a little trust...

Interesting news about Google today.  Here's the quote from Clint Boulton of Google Watch...

Numerous media outlets are covering comScore's Monday report that clicks on Google's paid search links fell 7.5 percent from December 2007 to January. Reporters did the same when IDC two weeks ago reported Google's ad share dipped 0.5 percent.

Is it time to cry recession?

Google made $16.6 billion from online advertising in 2007, so I would agree that Google losing 7.5 percent of its primary financial cash cow would be a big hit to the company coffers if the figure averaged out or grew over 12 months.

It is not a sign that something is wrong with Google or its advertising business per se, not anymore than the search vendor's absurd soar to a $700+ stock share price this summer meant the company had found the fountain of youth. Finance is a fickle fancy.

I agree in that I don't think this says anything about Google.  I expect Google will have a few more flat-to-down quarters but I doubt it will matter.  Google will survive this bubble just as Microsoft, Yahoo and others survived the last.  They have a solid business model that will carry them through. 

The same is not true of a lot of "Web 2.0" companies out there who are counting on ads to get by.

It baffles me how people didn't see this "Web 2.0 bubble" following the same pattern as the "Web 1.0 bubble".  People start advertising on the web, a bunch of web startups popup funded by those ads, the bottom falls out of the ad market and those companies go out of business.  It isn't that difficult.

Yet I still see almost no acknowledgement of this in the blogs.  Worse yet, people are actually treating ad-based models as if they were the only business model.  Just one example was Steve Karp essentially claiming that in relation to the Wall Street Journal's decision to retain their paid content (I wrote a post on it)

Baffles me...

I'm not sure there's any saving the doomed Web 2.0 companies at this point.  If I have any advice it would be start cobbling together a secondary revenue source before things get bad.   Either that or combine with other like minded companies in order to create a compelling ad-network, ad-based revenue models are appropriate in some places.

My real hope here is that, when Web 3.0 rolls around, people will learn to put ad-based revenue into perspective.  Its certainly appropriate in some places but it is not and never has been the be-all-end-all.  Its just one tool in what should be an arsenal of ways to make money.